Marin County Q2 Real Estate Market Update

Q2 2025 Market Update

It is often said that we live in a bubble in the Bay Area, and in many ways, we do. The inherent beauty, wealth, and opportunity of this region create its micro-economy that doesn’t necessarily comply with nationwide trends or norms. So when things shift, even subtly, in our industry, it can feel quite shocking to those of us who are in the trenches day in and day out, helping people buy and sell homes.

There was a lot of anticipation that Spring 2025 would be a better market than the fall. But instead, we saw some desirable properties sit on the market. We saw some price reductions, heaven forbid! We saw offer dates come and go with no bites. Wait a minute. This isn’t the market we are used to. We expect the Spring market to outperform the rest of the year. So our expectation makes what is merely a speed bump feel like a bungee jump. However, when you look at the data, the market is actually performing pretty well.

In Marin, median prices held steady, sales volume rose sharply alongside a notable increase in available inventory. The result was a balanced market defined not by dramatic price swings, but by consistency, strong fundamentals, and smart, value-driven decisions on both sides of the transaction. In San Francisco, volume, median price, and price per square foot were all up modestly, and with a new mayor in office and the surge in AI investment, the city's momentum is shifting in a positive direction. Together, these two markets offer a window into the evolving dynamics of Bay Area real estate: confidence returning, demand diversifying, and strategy taking center stage.

Every day, our newsfeed is inundated with information that hits every button on the emotional scale, from tantalizing, shocking to tragic and horrifying. This continuous state of uncertainty is our new normal for the time being. What we can focus on are things within our control to shape the outcome of our endeavors. In this current climate, homes that are thoughtfully prepped and strategically priced will succeed. Buyers who can act quickly and are willing to do some work on a home can find some great opportunities.

At Outpost in Q2, we uncovered several off-market opportunities for our buyer clients and made compelling preemptive offers to secure their dream homes. We also sold multiple newly reconstructed and remodeled homes with great design for record prices. As always, we're here to guide you through it with clarity, honesty, and a plan to achieve your goals.

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Marin County

The median sales price was $1,802,508, which is just 0.1% higher than Q2 2024.
The median days on market was 17 days, two days longer than last year but still very fast.
Contracts signed totaled 612, which is up 6.8% year over year.
Closed sales came in at 606, up 11.2% from last year.
There were 381 active listings at the end of the quarter, a 44.3% increase over Q2 2024.
The months of supply stood at 2.0, which still leans in favor of sellers.
49.2% of homes sold over asking, down from 56.5% a year ago.
Sellers received an average of 102.2% of list price, a small dip from 103.0%.
The average price per square foot was $904, down 1.3% year over year.

San Francisco

The median price was $1,760,000, up 3.5% compared to last year.
Days on market held steady at 13.
Price per square foot rose slightly by 0.2% to $1,038.
Contracts signed totaled 687, a 5.7% increase.
Closed sales reached 672, up 3.4%.
There were 227 active listings, a small 3.2% rise.
Months of supply remained tight at just 1.0.
Roughly 80% of homes sold above asking, with sellers receiving 113% of their list price.

Tales From the Trenches

MAKING THE MOST OF THE MARKET YOU'RE IN

When long-time clients of ours informed us that they wanted to make a move within their beloved town of San Anselmo into a home with an ADU, we scoured the market to see what we could find. There was nothing on the MLS that was walking distance to downtown with a turn-key ADU. So we tapped into our off-market channels and found the perfect spot, 64 Tamalpais. Even though the property was not yet being marketed, we made a compelling preemptive offer, beating out the competition. Subsequently, we listed our client's charming home at 129 Sunnyside. We made some strategic improvements and it sold for 12.6% above the asking price within 1 day on the MLS. Both of these transactions occurred during the Spring of 2025 which was a very bifurcated and mercurial market. However, we manifested two very successful transactions despite the choppy conditions by being proactive and sticking with our tried and true formula that served us and our clients well, regardless of what market we find ourselves in.