Q3 2026 in Marin | San Francisco
The Outpost Perspective
Marin County’s single-family home market gained momentum in Q3 2026, with quarter-end inventory dropping 30.3% year-over-year while completed sales surged 19.4% to 553. With only 271 homes available at the quarter’s close, buyers encountered fewer options and heightened competition. The median selling time shortened significantly by 37.0%, from 27 days to just 17, underscoring strong demand against limited supply. Sellers benefited from this competitive environment: over half of the homes sold above asking price—up from 37.4% in Q3 2025—and sellers received an average of 103.5% of the list price, compared to 100.1% last year. The median sales price climbed 6.7% to $1,760,000, bolstered by a 6.9% rise in median price per square foot to $886. Pending sales also rose 6.0% to 494.
Recent economic reports provide positive context. California added 39,400 payroll jobs in August. However, financing costs remain a consideration, with Freddie Mac’s average 30 year fixed year mortgage rate at 7.4% as of October 8th.
San Francisco’s housing market entered the fall with exceptional momentum, as Q3 2026 delivered sharply higher prices, tighter inventory, faster sales, and stronger competition across both single-family homes and condominiums. Median sales prices for both property types reached their highest Q3 levels on record, while available inventory contracted substantially. The median sales price for single-family homes surged 23.1% year over year to $2,000,000, while the median price per square foot climbed 17.5% to $1,161. Competition remained intense: 87.8% of homes sold above asking, up from 71.7% last year, and sellers received an average of 127.2% of list price, compared with 113.2% in Q3 2025. Homes moved quickly, with a median of just 12 days on market.
The condominium market added another layer of strength to the quarter. The median sales price jumped 16.4% to $1,269,000, while price per square foot rose 15.5% to $1,126. Median days on market fell from 37 days to just 15 days, the fastest Q3 condo market time on record.
The broader backdrop remains supportive, with growing local employment, concentrated tech and AI investment, and strong equity markets bolstering buyer wealth. These gains are particularly notable because borrowing costs remain elevated, meaning the market acceleration has occurred without the benefit of significantly cheaper financing.The broader backdrop remains supportive, with growing local employment, concentrated tech and AI investment, and strong equity markets bolstering buyer wealth. These gains are particularly notable because borrowing costs remain elevated, meaning the market acceleration has occurred without the benefit of significantly cheaper financing.
Recent Sales that Bring the Market into Focus:
We're seeing insatiable demand in the top of the SF and Marin market. As young tech leaders build families and look for more space, privacy and a different pace of life, we're getting more inquiries from top agents looking for homes in the 8-15 million range.
Interestingly, higher interest rates have not seemed to put much of a dent in luxury demand for homes priced at $5 million and above. Buyers in the $3 million-and-under range, where financing plays a much bigger role, are feeling the higher cost of money and may not be able to buy as much house as they could six months ago. Even so, we've seen homes in this price range receive 10+ offers.
The takeaway is simple: when demand is high and inventory is tight, buyers will do what they can to buy the right house. The market may be more selective, but when a truly special property comes along, buyers are still ready to compete.
The annual Larkspur Wine Walk was another resounding success! Thank you to everyone who came out to stroll, sip, and celebrate with us.
A huge shoutout to Trentadue Winery for coming down to pour for us! Their wines and their warm hospitality were truly the highlight of our day.
And the Raffle Winner Is...
Congratulations to Elizabeth B., who took home our grand raffle prize: a gift card to the Appellation Hotel in Healdsburg, paired with a wine tasting at Trentadue Winery in Geyserville. It's the perfect recipe for a Sonoma County getaway: a stay in the heart of Healdsburg and an afternoon of tasting with five friends at one of Alexander Valley's beloved family wineries.
