To say these are unprecedented times would be the understatement of the year. Our world has changed right before our eyes affecting everyone no matter where you live or what kind of home you live in. Since the Shelter in Place ordinance we have been on many Zoom calls with our management team to try and gather the best available data to assess how our local real estate market is going to be affected by this crisis. The rules and regulations have been changing on a daily basis. Real estate has been classified as an Essential Service in California but in person showings are very restricted and outright prohibited in certain areas. Some San Francisco agents are showing property, whereas Marin is frowning upon any showings at all. While we would love to get back out there, we know the smart and safe thing to do is to shelter in place, and prepare for a robust market when we can get back to business. We hope you and yours are staying safe and healthy and using this time to relax, regroup, reconnect with the simple things in life like family, health, nature, a good book, a delicious recipe and most of all a sense of common purpose to get through this together, which we will!
The first thing to remember when looking at the data is that there is a time lag - usually 3 to 6+ weeks - between a new listing coming on market and when the transaction actually closes sale. This means that almost all of the sales price data we have, as of the first week of April, still reflects the market BEFORE the shelter-in-place rules went into effect. In virtually all Bay Area counties, first quarter and March median sales prices were quite strong. Since then, inventory is down significantly, as are overall sales. However, we expect to see a surge in activity once the SIP is removed as there will be buyers out there looking to take advantage of the disruption, the potential for less competition and the realization that home is more important than ever. While some sellers may decide not to sell now because of the crisis there may be just as many that need to sell because of new circumstances so we expect to have a healthy amount of inventory and a busy late spring and summer market.
Here is a look at projections for how the year 2020 may play out. All in all not as bad as one might have thought considering the overall economic impact of the Corona Virus. While the spring market has been most effected, with an anticipated release of Shelter In Place through mid-May, the summer and fall markets are anticipated to outperform those same time frames 2019 which will make up for some of the downturn during the SIP.